Young Sport Academy 2–2 Panthère: Result & Stats

Young Sport Academy

FT

2 – 2

Panthère

12/4/2019

Elite One · Round 11Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Young Sport Academy40%

×Draw32%

Panthère29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young Sport AcademyExpected goals in this matchPanthère

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.85

Young Sport Academy

1.05

Panthère

0.85

Young Sport Academy creates 24% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 64 away

1.05

creates per match

0.84

0.86

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Young Sport Academy

1.05

Panthère

0.84

allows per match

Young Sport Academy

0.86

Panthère

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par

Panthère+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Sport Academy ↓

Panthère →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Young Sport Academy or draw

71%

Young Sport Academy or Panthère

68%

Draw or Panthère

60%

Winning margin

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+

16%

Panthère wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals

65%

Young Sport Academy 2+ goals

28%

Young Sport Academy 3+ goals

9%

Panthère 1+ goals

57%

Panthère 2+ goals

21%

Panthère 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)

58%

Panthère (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Sport Academy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 79 matches

Panthère away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.05 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Sport Academy attack 1.05 + Panthère defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Panthère attack 0.84 + Young Sport Academy defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Young Sport Academy scores more

40%

level

32%

Panthère scores more

29%

Young Sport Academy at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff