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Young Sport Academy vs Feutcheu — Elite One 2019

Young Sport Academy
Young Sport Academy
FT
0 – 0
Feutcheu
Feutcheu
2/27/2019Elite OneElite One · Round 6Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda (Bamenda)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Young Sport Academy37%
×Draw31%
Feutcheu32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Sport Academy
1.04
Feutcheu
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 79 home / 57 away

creates per match

Young Sport Academy
1.05
Feutcheu
1.04

allows per match

Young Sport Academy
0.86
Feutcheu
1.04

finishing

Young Sport Academy+0.00on par
Feutcheu+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Sport Academy ↓

Feutcheu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Young Sport Academy or draw
68%
Young Sport Academy or Feutcheu
69%
Draw or Feutcheu
63%

Winning margin

Young Sport Academy wins by 2+
14%
Feutcheu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Young Sport Academy 1+ goals
65%
Young Sport Academy 2+ goals
28%
Young Sport Academy 3+ goals
9%
Feutcheu 1+ goals
61%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
25%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Young Sport Academy (draw refunded)
53%
Feutcheu (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Sport Academy at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.86 · 79 matches

Feutcheu away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Sport Academy attack 1.05 + Feutcheu defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.04

Feutcheu attack 1.04 + Young Sport Academy defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Young Sport Academy scores more
37%
level
31%
Feutcheu scores more
32%

Young Sport Academy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Young Sport Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Young Sport Academy 0–0 Feutcheu

Young Sport Academy and Feutcheu drew 0-0 in Elite One on February 27, 2019.

The match was played at Yong Sports Academy Complex Bamenda (Bamenda).