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Young Lions vs Geylang International — Premier League 2019

Young Lions
Young Lions
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Geylang International
Geylang International
4/16/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Young Lions24%
×Draw20%
Geylang International56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Lions
1.49
Geylang International
2.31

Geylang International creates 55% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 81 away

creates per match

Young Lions
1.05
Geylang International
1.78

allows per match

Young Lions
2.83
Geylang International
1.93

finishing

Young Lions+0.00on par
Geylang International+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Lions ↓

Geylang International →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Young Lions or draw
44%
Young Lions or Geylang International
80%
Draw or Geylang International
76%

Winning margin

Young Lions wins by 2+
11%
Geylang International wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Young Lions 1+ goals
77%
Young Lions 2+ goals
44%
Young Lions 3+ goals
19%
Geylang International 1+ goals
90%
Geylang International 2+ goals
67%
Geylang International 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Young Lions (draw refunded)
31%
Geylang International (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Lions at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.83 · 82 matches

Geylang International away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.93 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Lions attack 1.05 + Geylang International defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.49

Geylang International attack 1.78 + Young Lions defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Young Lions scores more
24%
level
20%
Geylang International scores more
56%

Geylang International at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Geylang International will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Lions vs Geylang International

Young Lions beat Geylang International 4-1 in Premier League on April 16, 2022.

The match was played at Jalan Besar Stadium in Singapore.