Young Lions 2–4 Albirex Niigata S: Result & Stats

Young Lions

FT

2 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Albirex Niigata S

7/1/2023

Premier League · Round 8Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Young Lions18%

×Draw18%

Albirex Niigata S64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Young LionsExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata S

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

2.52

Young Lions

1.28

Albirex Niigata S

2.52

Albirex Niigata S creates 97% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

1.05

creates per match

2.20

2.83

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Young Lions

1.05

Albirex Niigata S

2.20

allows per match

Young Lions

2.83

Albirex Niigata S

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Young Lions+0.00on par

Albirex Niigata S+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Lions ↓

Albirex Niigata S →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Young Lions or draw

36%

Young Lions or Albirex Niigata S

82%

Draw or Albirex Niigata S

82%

Winning margin

Young Lions wins by 2+

7%

Albirex Niigata S wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Young Lions 1+ goals

72%

Young Lions 2+ goals

37%

Young Lions 3+ goals

14%

Albirex Niigata S 1+ goals

92%

Albirex Niigata S 2+ goals

71%

Albirex Niigata S 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Young Lions (draw refunded)

22%

Albirex Niigata S (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Lions at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.83 · 82 matches

Albirex Niigata S away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.51 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Lions attack 1.05 + Albirex Niigata S defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.28

Albirex Niigata S attack 2.20 + Young Lions defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Young Lions scores more

18%

level

18%

Albirex Niigata S scores more

64%

Albirex Niigata S at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Albirex Niigata S will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff