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Young Buffaloes vs Moneni Pirates — Premier League 2020

Young Buffaloes
Young Buffaloes
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Moneni Pirates
Moneni Pirates
2/18/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Mhlume Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Young Buffaloes55%
×Draw25%
Moneni Pirates20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Buffaloes
1.60
Moneni Pirates
0.85

Young Buffaloes creates 88% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

creates per match

Young Buffaloes
1.84
Moneni Pirates
1.04

allows per match

Young Buffaloes
0.66
Moneni Pirates
1.35

finishing

Young Buffaloes+0.00on par
Moneni Pirates+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Buffaloes ↓

Moneni Pirates →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Young Buffaloes or draw
80%
Young Buffaloes or Moneni Pirates
75%
Draw or Moneni Pirates
45%

Winning margin

Young Buffaloes wins by 2+
29%
Moneni Pirates wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Young Buffaloes 1+ goals
80%
Young Buffaloes 2+ goals
47%
Young Buffaloes 3+ goals
22%
Moneni Pirates 1+ goals
57%
Moneni Pirates 2+ goals
21%
Moneni Pirates 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Young Buffaloes (draw refunded)
73%
Moneni Pirates (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Buffaloes at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.66 · 83 matches

Moneni Pirates away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Buffaloes attack 1.84 + Moneni Pirates defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.60

Moneni Pirates attack 1.04 + Young Buffaloes defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Young Buffaloes scores more
55%
level
25%
Moneni Pirates scores more
20%

Young Buffaloes at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Young Buffaloes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Young Buffaloes vs Moneni Pirates

Young Buffaloes beat Moneni Pirates 2-1 in Premier League on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Mhlume Stadium in Siteki.