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Young Africans vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

Young Africans
Young Africans
FT
1 – 0
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
10/2/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 2Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Young Africans65%
×Draw22%
Geita Gold13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Young Africans
1.83
Geita Gold
0.67

Young Africans creates 173% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 45 away

creates per match

Young Africans
2.27
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

Young Africans
0.52
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

Young Africans+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Young Africans ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Young Africans or draw
87%
Young Africans or Geita Gold
78%
Draw or Geita Gold
35%

Winning margin

Young Africans wins by 2+
39%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Young Africans 1+ goals
84%
Young Africans 2+ goals
54%
Young Africans 3+ goals
28%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
49%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
15%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Young Africans (draw refunded)
83%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Young Africans at home — creates 2.27, concedes 0.52 · 111 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Young Africans attack 2.27 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.83

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + Young Africans defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Young Africans scores more
65%
level
22%
Geita Gold scores more
13%

Young Africans at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Young Africans will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligi kuu Bara: Young Africans 1–0 Geita Gold

Young Africans beat Geita Gold 1-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on October 2, 2021.

The match was played at Benjamin Mkapa National Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.