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York vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

York
York
Preview
14:00
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
9/12/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 6York Community Stadium
39%
Swindon Town
model favours
33%28%39%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

York33%
×Draw28%
Swindon Town39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York
1.08
Swindon Town
1.21

Swindon Town creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 139 away

creates per match

York
0.72
Swindon Town
1.49

allows per match

York
0.94
Swindon Town
1.45

finishing

York+0.00on par
Swindon Town+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

York or draw
61%
York or Swindon Town
72%
Draw or Swindon Town
67%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+
13%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

York 1+ goals
66%
York 2+ goals
29%
York 3+ goals
10%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
70%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
34%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)
46%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 139 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 0.72 + Swindon Town defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.08

Swindon Town attack 1.49 + York defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

York scores more
33%
level
28%
Swindon Town scores more
39%

Swindon Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swindon Town score first in only 9% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 73% over 2.5)
  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Swindon Town have scored in 11 games running
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • 73% of Swindon Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
York
LLWDW
Town
LLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: York host Swindon Town

September 12, 2026: York take on Swindon Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

York host Swindon Town at York Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.