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York vs Newport County — League Two 2018

York
York
Preview
15:00
Newport County
Newport County
1/16/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 25York Community Stadium
38%
York
model favours
38%30%32%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
42%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

York38%
×Draw30%
Newport County32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York
1.09
Newport County
0.99

York creates 10% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 162 away

creates per match

York
0.72
Newport County
1.04

allows per match

York
0.94
Newport County
1.47

finishing

York+0.00on par
Newport County+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Newport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

York or draw
68%
York or Newport County
70%
Draw or Newport County
62%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+
15%
Newport County wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

York 1+ goals
66%
York 2+ goals
30%
York 3+ goals
10%
Newport County 1+ goals
63%
Newport County 2+ goals
26%
Newport County 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)
54%
Newport County (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 162 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 0.72 + Newport County defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.09

Newport County attack 1.04 + York defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

York scores more
38%
level
30%
Newport County scores more
32%

York at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 60% over 2.5)
  • Newport County score first in only 30% of matches
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • York and Newport County have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
York
LLWDW
County
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: York host Newport County

January 16, 2027: York take on Newport County in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

York host Newport County at York Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.