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York vs Fleetwood Town — League Two 2018

York
York
Preview
19:45
Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
12/29/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 22York Community Stadium
35%
York
model favours
35%30%35%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

York35%
×Draw30%
Fleetwood Town35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York
1.06
Fleetwood Town
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 54 away

creates per match

York
0.72
Fleetwood Town
1.19

allows per match

York
0.94
Fleetwood Town
1.41

finishing

York+0.00on par
Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Fleetwood Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

York or draw
65%
York or Fleetwood Town
70%
Draw or Fleetwood Town
65%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+
14%
Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

York 1+ goals
65%
York 2+ goals
29%
York 3+ goals
9%
Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
65%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
29%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)
50%
Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 0.72 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.06

Fleetwood Town attack 1.19 + York defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

York scores more
35%
level
30%
Fleetwood Town scores more
35%

York at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • York and Fleetwood Town have never met before
  • York win 79% of their home games
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
York
LLWDW
Town
WWWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: York host Fleetwood Town

December 29, 2026: York take on Fleetwood Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

York host Fleetwood Town at York Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.