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York vs Crawley Town — League Two 2018

York
York
Preview
15:00
Crawley Town
Crawley Town
12/19/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 20York Community Stadium
39%
York
model favours
39%29%33%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

York39%
×Draw29%
Crawley Town33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York
1.17
Crawley Town
1.05

York creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 151 away

creates per match

York
0.72
Crawley Town
1.17

allows per match

York
0.94
Crawley Town
1.62

finishing

York+0.00on par
Crawley Town+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Crawley Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

York or draw
67%
York or Crawley Town
71%
Draw or Crawley Town
61%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+
16%
Crawley Town wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

York 1+ goals
69%
York 2+ goals
33%
York 3+ goals
11%
Crawley Town 1+ goals
65%
Crawley Town 2+ goals
28%
Crawley Town 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)
54%
Crawley Town (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Crawley Town away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.62 · 151 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 0.72 + Crawley Town defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.17

Crawley Town attack 1.17 + York defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

York scores more
39%
level
29%
Crawley Town scores more
33%

York at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • York win 79% of their home games
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
York
LLWDW
Town
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: York host Crawley Town

December 19, 2026: York take on Crawley Town in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

York host Crawley Town at York Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.