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York vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

York
York
Preview
19:45
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
2/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 30York Community Stadium
36%
York
model favours
36%30%34%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
66%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

York36%
×Draw30%
Cheltenham34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York
1.05
Cheltenham
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 95 away

creates per match

York
0.72
Cheltenham
1.06

allows per match

York
0.94
Cheltenham
1.38

finishing

York+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

York or draw
66%
York or Cheltenham
70%
Draw or Cheltenham
64%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+
14%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

York 1+ goals
65%
York 2+ goals
28%
York 3+ goals
9%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
63%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
26%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)
52%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 0.72 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.05

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + York defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

York scores more
36%
level
30%
Cheltenham scores more
34%

York at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • York and Cheltenham have never met before
  • York win 79% of their home games
  • 43% of York’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
York
LLWDW
Cheltenham
WLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: York host Cheltenham

February 9, 2027: York take on Cheltenham in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

York host Cheltenham at York Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.