York 0–1 Aldershot Town: Result & Stats

York

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aldershot Town

B. Mensah 29'

10/1/2016

League #43 · Round 16Bootham Crescent (York, North Yorkshire)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

York61%

×Draw21%

Aldershot Town18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YorkExpected goals in this matchAldershot Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.01

York

2.06

Aldershot Town

1.01

York creates 104% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 18 away

2.30

creates per match

0.94

1.08

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

York

2.30

Aldershot Town

0.94

allows per match

York

1.08

Aldershot Town

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York+0.00on par

Aldershot Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Aldershot Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

York or draw

82%

York or Aldershot Town

79%

Draw or Aldershot Town

39%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+

38%

Aldershot Town wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

York 1+ goals

87%

York 2+ goals

61%

York 3+ goals

34%

Aldershot Town 1+ goals

64%

Aldershot Town 2+ goals

27%

Aldershot Town 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)

77%

Aldershot Town (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.08 · 53 matches

Aldershot Town away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.83 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 2.30 + Aldershot Town defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.06

Aldershot Town attack 0.94 + York defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

York scores more

61%

level

21%

Aldershot Town scores more

18%

York at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'

B. Mensah

45+2'

D. Nti← A. Connolly

46'

M. Dixon← A. Whittle

59'

D. Conroy← L. Bellamy

62'

S. Rendell← S. Fenelon

65'

R. Brodie← K. Felix

79'

J. Wakefield← B. Mensah

York

Aldershot

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. McNamara

45+2'▲D. Nti←▼A. Connolly

46'▲M. Dixon←▼A. Whittle

65'▲R. Brodie←▼K. Felix

York substitutes

NtiDixonBrodieMurdochSimpson

Manager: G. Waddock

59'▲D. Conroy←▼L. Bellamy

62'▲S. Rendell←▼S. Fenelon

79'▲J. Wakefield←▼B. Mensah

Aldershot Town substitutes

ConroyRendellWakefieldWalkerSmith

Match Recap: York vs Aldershot Town

Aldershot Town beat York 1-0 in League #43 on October 1, 2016.

Goals: B. Mensah (29').

The match was played at Bootham Crescent (York, North Yorkshire).

York vs Aldershot Town — League #43 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: York vs Aldershot Town