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York vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

York
York
Preview
18:45
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
10/20/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 12York Community Stadium
40%
York
model favours
40%30%31%

York have scored in 36 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
64%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

York40%
×Draw30%
Accrington ST31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

York
1.15
Accrington ST
0.98

York creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 91 away

creates per match

York
0.72
Accrington ST
1.02

allows per match

York
0.94
Accrington ST
1.57

finishing

York+0.00on par
Accrington ST+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

York or draw
69%
York or Accrington ST
70%
Draw or Accrington ST
60%

Winning margin

York wins by 2+
17%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

York 1+ goals
68%
York 2+ goals
32%
York 3+ goals
11%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
62%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
26%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

York (draw refunded)
56%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York at home — creates 0.72, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.57 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York attack 0.72 + Accrington ST defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.15

Accrington ST attack 1.02 + York defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

York scores more
40%
level
30%
Accrington ST scores more
31%

York at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "York will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of York’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • When York score first, they win 83% of the time
  • York score first in only 33% of matches
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)
  • York and Accrington ST have never met before
  • York win 79% of their home games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
York
LLWDW
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: York host Accrington ST

October 20, 2026: York take on Accrington ST in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

York host Accrington ST at York Community Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.