York United vs Supra du Quebec

York United

Preview

20:00

Supra du Quebec

8/23/2026

Canadian Premier League · Group StageYork Lions Stadium

44%

York United

model favours

44%23%33%

York United score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

65%

over 2.5 goals

66%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

York United44%

×Draw23%

Supra du Quebec33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

York UnitedExpected goals in this matchSupra du Quebec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.54

York United

1.82

Supra du Quebec

1.54

York United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 4 away

1.39

creates per match

1.75

1.34

allows per match

2.25

creates per match

York United

1.39

Supra du Quebec

1.75

allows per match

York United

1.34

Supra du Quebec

2.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York United+0.00on par

Supra du Quebec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York United ↓

Supra du Quebec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

York United or draw

67%

York United or Supra du Quebec

77%

Draw or Supra du Quebec

56%

Winning margin

York United wins by 2+

24%

Supra du Quebec wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

York United 1+ goals

84%

York United 2+ goals

54%

York United 3+ goals

27%

Supra du Quebec 1+ goals

79%

Supra du Quebec 2+ goals

45%

Supra du Quebec 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

York United (draw refunded)

57%

Supra du Quebec (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

Supra du Quebec away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York United attack 1.39 + Supra du Quebec defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.82

Supra du Quebec attack 1.75 + York United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

York United scores more

44%

level

23%

Supra du Quebec scores more

33%

York United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "York United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Both teams score in 70% of York United’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

United

LLLLD

Quebec

WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff