York United 2–2 HFX Wanderers FC: Result & Stats

York United

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

HFX Wanderers FC

6/21/2023

Canadian Premier League · Round 6York Lions Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

York United42%

×Draw26%

HFX Wanderers FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

York UnitedExpected goals in this matchHFX Wanderers FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.16

York United

1.40

HFX Wanderers FC

1.16

York United creates 21% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 82 away

1.39

creates per match

0.98

1.34

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

York United

1.39

HFX Wanderers FC

0.98

allows per match

York United

1.34

HFX Wanderers FC

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

York United+0.00on par

HFX Wanderers FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

York United ↓

HFX Wanderers FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

York United or draw

69%

York United or HFX Wanderers FC

74%

Draw or HFX Wanderers FC

58%

Winning margin

York United wins by 2+

20%

HFX Wanderers FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

York United 1+ goals

75%

York United 2+ goals

41%

York United 3+ goals

17%

HFX Wanderers FC 1+ goals

69%

HFX Wanderers FC 2+ goals

32%

HFX Wanderers FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

York United (draw refunded)

58%

HFX Wanderers FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

York United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches

HFX Wanderers FC away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.41 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

York United attack 1.39 + HFX Wanderers FC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

HFX Wanderers FC attack 0.98 + York United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

York United scores more

42%

level

26%

HFX Wanderers FC scores more

31%

York United at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "York United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff