York United vs Forge — Canadian Premier League 2020
Forge have scored in 26 games running
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 79+ matches
York United32%Forge41%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Forge creates 16% more chances
Season form · 79 home / 85 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under53
- Over47
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
York United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
York United at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 79 matches
Forge away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 85 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
York United attack 1.39 + Forge defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19
Forge attack 1.41 + York United defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Forge at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Forge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Insights
- York United score first in only 20% of matches
- Forge are unbeaten in 6 straight
- When Forge score first, they win 87% of the time
- Forge have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
- Both teams score in 70% of York United’s matches
- 39% of Forge’s goals come after the 75th minute
Based on historical data — not a prediction.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
York United host Forge on Sunday, 26 July 2026 at 21:00. The match is part of the Canadian Premier League 2020/2021 season.
York United vs Forge — Match Preview
York United face Forge on July 26, 2026 in this Canadian Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
York United host Forge at York Lions Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.