Yokohama FC 3–1 Yokohama F. Marinos: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Yokohama F. Marinos

12/19/2020

J1 League · Round 34Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Yokohama FC31%

×Draw25%

Yokohama F. Marinos45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchYokohama F. Marinos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.58

Yokohama FC

1.27

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.58

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 24% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 152 away

1.00

creates per match

1.67

1.49

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.00

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.67

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.49

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Yokohama F. Marinos →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

55%

Yokohama FC or Yokohama F. Marinos

75%

Draw or Yokohama F. Marinos

69%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

13%

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

72%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

36%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

14%

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

79%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

47%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

41%

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Yokohama F. Marinos away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.53 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.00 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.67 + Yokohama FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

31%

level

25%

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

45%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff