Yokohama FC 1–1 Vegalta Sendai: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Vegalta Sendai

7/12/2020

J1 League · Round 4Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Yokohama FC38%

×Draw26%

Vegalta Sendai36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchVegalta Sendai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.28

Yokohama FC

1.33

Vegalta Sendai

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 70 away

1.00

creates per match

1.07

1.49

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.00

Vegalta Sendai

1.07

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.49

Vegalta Sendai

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Vegalta Sendai+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Vegalta Sendai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

64%

Yokohama FC or Vegalta Sendai

74%

Draw or Vegalta Sendai

62%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

17%

Vegalta Sendai wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

74%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

38%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

15%

Vegalta Sendai 1+ goals

72%

Vegalta Sendai 2+ goals

37%

Vegalta Sendai 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

52%

Vegalta Sendai (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Vegalta Sendai away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.67 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.00 + Vegalta Sendai defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Vegalta Sendai attack 1.07 + Yokohama FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

38%

level

26%

Vegalta Sendai scores more

36%

Yokohama FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff