Yokohama FC 1–2 Tokushima Vortis: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tokushima Vortis

Leandro Domingues 89'

M. Watai 72'

N. Nomura 4'

6/15/2019

J2 League · Round 18Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Yokohama FC43%

×Draw27%

Tokushima Vortis30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchTokushima Vortis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Yokohama FC

1.36

Tokushima Vortis

1.10

Yokohama FC creates 24% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 149 away

1.71

creates per match

1.19

1.01

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.71

Tokushima Vortis

1.19

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.01

Tokushima Vortis

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Tokushima Vortis+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Tokushima Vortis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

70%

Yokohama FC or Tokushima Vortis

73%

Draw or Tokushima Vortis

57%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

20%

Tokushima Vortis wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

74%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

39%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

16%

Tokushima Vortis 1+ goals

67%

Tokushima Vortis 2+ goals

30%

Tokushima Vortis 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

59%

Tokushima Vortis (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Tokushima Vortis away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.01 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.71 + Tokushima Vortis defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.36

Tokushima Vortis attack 1.19 + Yokohama FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

43%

level

27%

Tokushima Vortis scores more

30%

Yokohama FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

N. Nomura

56'

K. Nakayama

60'

Y. Kusano← T. Matsuura

60'

Leandro Domingues← K. Saito

69'

M. Watai← Y. Oshitani

72'

M. Watai

75'

M. Inoha

83'

K. Sato← Y. Hakamata

84'

K. Kiyotake← A. Kawata

86'

K. Kano← N. Nomura

89'

Leandro Domingues

Yokohama

Tokushima

21

5

7

2

8

14

11

⚽

▼

Nomura

32

Konishi

47

▼

Oshitani

9

▼

15

18

20

39

14

26

▼

Hakamata

22

Matsui

7

▼

6

27

9

15

▼

Saito

Manager: T. Shimotaira

60'▲Y. Kusano←▼T. Matsuura

60'▲Leandro Domingues←▼K. Saito

83'▲K. Sato←▼Y. Hakamata

Yokohama FC substitutes

25Kusano40Domingues8Sato5Tashiro13Senuma21Takeshige24Watanabe

Manager: Ricardo Rodríguez

69'▲M. Watai←▼Y. Oshitani

84'▲K. Kiyotake←▼A. Kawata

86'▲K. Kano←▼N. Nomura

Tokushima Vortis substitutes

16Watai13Kiyotake10Kano17Omotehara23Suzuki26Akiyama31Hasegawa