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Yokohama FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi — J2 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Renofa Yamaguchi
Renofa Yamaguchi
9/30/2018J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 35Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 90+ matches

Yokohama FC52%
×Draw25%
Renofa Yamaguchi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.60
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.99

Yokohama FC creates 62% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 168 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.71
Renofa Yamaguchi
0.98

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.01
Renofa Yamaguchi
1.50

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Renofa Yamaguchi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Renofa Yamaguchi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
77%
Yokohama FC or Renofa Yamaguchi
75%
Draw or Renofa Yamaguchi
48%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
27%
Renofa Yamaguchi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
80%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
47%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
22%
Renofa Yamaguchi 1+ goals
63%
Renofa Yamaguchi 2+ goals
26%
Renofa Yamaguchi 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
69%
Renofa Yamaguchi (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.01 · 90 matches

Renofa Yamaguchi away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.50 · 168 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.71 + Renofa Yamaguchi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Renofa Yamaguchi attack 0.98 + Yokohama FC defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
52%
level
25%
Renofa Yamaguchi scores more
23%

Yokohama FC at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yokohama FC vs Renofa Yamaguchi

Renofa Yamaguchi beat Yokohama FC 3-2 in J2 League on September 30, 2018.

The match was played at Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama).