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Yokohama FC vs Machida Zelvia — J2 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
5/12/2019J2 LeagueJ2 League · Round 13Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Yokohama FC42%
×Draw26%
Machida Zelvia31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.40
Machida Zelvia
1.17

Yokohama FC creates 20% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 127 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.68
Machida Zelvia
1.31

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.02
Machida Zelvia
1.12

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Machida Zelvia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
69%
Yokohama FC or Machida Zelvia
74%
Draw or Machida Zelvia
58%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
20%
Machida Zelvia wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
75%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
41%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
17%
Machida Zelvia 1+ goals
69%
Machida Zelvia 2+ goals
33%
Machida Zelvia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
57%
Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.02 · 88 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.68 + Machida Zelvia defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.40

Machida Zelvia attack 1.31 + Yokohama FC defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
42%
level
26%
Machida Zelvia scores more
31%

Yokohama FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yokohama FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yokohama FC vs Machida Zelvia

Yokohama FC and Machida Zelvia drew 1-1 in J2 League on May 12, 2019.

The match was played at Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium (Yokohama).