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Yokohama FC vs Consadole Sapporo — J1 League 2018

Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Consadole Sapporo
Consadole Sapporo
7/4/2020J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 2Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Yokohama FC37%
×Draw26%
Consadole Sapporo38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama FC
1.37
Consadole Sapporo
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 72 home / 123 away

creates per match

Yokohama FC
1.00
Consadole Sapporo
1.28

allows per match

Yokohama FC
1.49
Consadole Sapporo
1.74

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par
Consadole Sapporo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Consadole Sapporo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw
62%
Yokohama FC or Consadole Sapporo
74%
Draw or Consadole Sapporo
63%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+
17%
Consadole Sapporo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals
75%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
40%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
16%
Consadole Sapporo 1+ goals
75%
Consadole Sapporo 2+ goals
40%
Consadole Sapporo 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
49%
Consadole Sapporo (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Consadole Sapporo away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.74 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.00 + Consadole Sapporo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.37

Consadole Sapporo attack 1.28 + Yokohama FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yokohama FC scores more
37%
level
26%
Consadole Sapporo scores more
38%

Consadole Sapporo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Consadole Sapporo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yokohama FC vs Consadole Sapporo

Consadole Sapporo beat Yokohama FC 2-1 in J1 League on July 4, 2020.

The match was played at Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium in Yokohama.