Yokohama FC 1–2 Cerezo Osaka: Result & Stats

Yokohama FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Cerezo Osaka

8/30/2020

J1 League · Round 13Nippatsu Mitsuzawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Yokohama FC31%

×Draw27%

Cerezo Osaka42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama FCExpected goals in this matchCerezo Osaka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.36

Yokohama FC

1.12

Cerezo Osaka

1.36

Cerezo Osaka creates 21% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 150 away

1.00

creates per match

1.24

1.49

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Yokohama FC

1.00

Cerezo Osaka

1.24

allows per match

Yokohama FC

1.49

Cerezo Osaka

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Cerezo Osaka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama FC ↓

Cerezo Osaka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Yokohama FC or draw

58%

Yokohama FC or Cerezo Osaka

73%

Draw or Cerezo Osaka

69%

Winning margin

Yokohama FC wins by 2+

12%

Cerezo Osaka wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Yokohama FC 1+ goals

67%

Yokohama FC 2+ goals

31%

Yokohama FC 3+ goals

10%

Cerezo Osaka 1+ goals

74%

Cerezo Osaka 2+ goals

39%

Cerezo Osaka 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Yokohama FC (draw refunded)

42%

Cerezo Osaka (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama FC at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.49 · 72 matches

Cerezo Osaka away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama FC attack 1.00 + Cerezo Osaka defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Cerezo Osaka attack 1.24 + Yokohama FC defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yokohama FC scores more

31%

level

27%

Cerezo Osaka scores more

42%

Cerezo Osaka at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cerezo Osaka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff