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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Yokohama FC — J1 League 2018

Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Yokohama FC
Yokohama FC
7/22/2020J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 6Nissan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos59%
×Draw22%
Yokohama FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.90
Yokohama FC
0.95

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 100% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 72 away

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.94
Yokohama FC
0.78

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.11
Yokohama FC
1.85

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par
Yokohama FC+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Yokohama FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw
82%
Yokohama F. Marinos or Yokohama FC
78%
Draw or Yokohama FC
41%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
35%
Yokohama FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
85%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
56%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
29%
Yokohama FC 1+ goals
61%
Yokohama FC 2+ goals
25%
Yokohama FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
76%
Yokohama FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Yokohama FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.85 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.94 + Yokohama FC defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.90

Yokohama FC attack 0.78 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
59%
level
22%
Yokohama FC scores more
18%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yokohama F. Marinos vs Yokohama FC

Yokohama F. Marinos beat Yokohama FC 4-0 in J1 League on July 22, 2020.

The match was played at Nissan Stadium in Yokohama.