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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Shimizu S-pulse — J1 League 2025

Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
Preview
10:00
Shimizu S-pulse
Shimizu S-pulse
5/22/2027J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 36Nissan Stadium
Big match
45%
Yokohama F. Marinos
model favours
45%26%29%

Shimizu S-pulse score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos45%
×Draw26%
Shimizu S-pulse29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.48
Shimizu S-pulse
1.14

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 30% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 36 away

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.46
Shimizu S-pulse
1.03

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.25
Shimizu S-pulse
1.50

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par
Shimizu S-pulse+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Shimizu S-pulse →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw
71%
Yokohama F. Marinos or Shimizu S-pulse
74%
Draw or Shimizu S-pulse
55%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
22%
Shimizu S-pulse wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
77%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
43%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
19%
Shimizu S-pulse 1+ goals
68%
Shimizu S-pulse 2+ goals
32%
Shimizu S-pulse 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
61%
Shimizu S-pulse (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

Shimizu S-pulse away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.46 + Shimizu S-pulse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.48

Shimizu S-pulse attack 1.03 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
45%
level
26%
Shimizu S-pulse scores more
29%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Yokohama F. Marinos score first in only 18% of matches
  • Yokohama F. Marinos win just 30% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 4.4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Yokohama F. Marinos
Direct / counter-attacking
Shimizu S-pulse
Balanced
44%PossessionBiggest gap50%
71%Pass accuracy79%
10.9Shots12.0
1.21xG1.17
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Yokohama F. MarinosShimizu S-pulse

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
Draws
1
Shimizu S-pulse
Avg goals: 4.4BTTS: 80%
3–01–13–12–35–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Marinos
DWDWL
S-pulse
WLDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yokohama F. Marinos face Shimizu S-pulse (J1 League)

J1 League returns with Yokohama F. Marinos hosting Shimizu S-pulse. Match starts May 22, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Yokohama F. Marinos host Shimizu S-pulse at Nissan Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.