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Yokohama F. Marinos vs Roasso Kumamoto — Friendlies Clubs 2021

Yokohama F. Marinos
Yokohama F. Marinos
Preview
08:00
Roasso Kumamoto
Roasso Kumamoto
7/19/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
39%
Roasso Kumamoto
model favours
33%28%39%

Yokohama F. Marinos score first in only 18% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
48%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos33%
×Draw28%
Roasso Kumamoto39%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.13
Roasso Kumamoto
1.25

Roasso Kumamoto creates 11% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.00
Roasso Kumamoto
1.50

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos
1.00
Roasso Kumamoto
1.25

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par
Roasso Kumamoto+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Roasso Kumamoto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw
61%
Yokohama F. Marinos or Roasso Kumamoto
72%
Draw or Roasso Kumamoto
67%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+
13%
Roasso Kumamoto wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals
68%
Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals
31%
Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals
11%
Roasso Kumamoto 1+ goals
71%
Roasso Kumamoto 2+ goals
36%
Roasso Kumamoto 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)
46%
Roasso Kumamoto (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Roasso Kumamoto away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.00 + Roasso Kumamoto defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.13

Roasso Kumamoto attack 1.50 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more
33%
level
28%
Roasso Kumamoto scores more
39%

Roasso Kumamoto at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Roasso Kumamoto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Marinos
DWDWL
Kumamoto
LDLLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Yokohama F. Marinos host Roasso Kumamoto

July 19, 2026: Yokohama F. Marinos take on Roasso Kumamoto in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.