Yokohama F. Marinos vs Machida Zelvia

Yokohama F. Marinos

Preview

11:00

Machida Zelvia

2/20/2027

J1 League · Round 22Nissan Stadium

Big match

41%

Yokohama F. Marinos

model favours

41%26%33%

Machida Zelvia are unbeaten in 9 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

50%

over 2.5 goals

54%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Yokohama F. Marinos41%

×Draw26%

Machida Zelvia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yokohama F. MarinosExpected goals in this matchMachida Zelvia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.25

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.44

Machida Zelvia

1.25

Yokohama F. Marinos creates 15% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 43 away

1.94

creates per match

1.40

1.11

allows per match

0.93

creates per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.94

Machida Zelvia

1.40

allows per match

Yokohama F. Marinos

1.11

Machida Zelvia

0.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yokohama F. Marinos+0.00on par

Machida Zelvia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yokohama F. Marinos ↓

Machida Zelvia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Yokohama F. Marinos or draw

67%

Yokohama F. Marinos or Machida Zelvia

74%

Draw or Machida Zelvia

59%

Winning margin

Yokohama F. Marinos wins by 2+

20%

Machida Zelvia wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Yokohama F. Marinos 1+ goals

76%

Yokohama F. Marinos 2+ goals

42%

Yokohama F. Marinos 3+ goals

18%

Machida Zelvia 1+ goals

71%

Machida Zelvia 2+ goals

36%

Machida Zelvia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Yokohama F. Marinos (draw refunded)

56%

Machida Zelvia (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yokohama F. Marinos at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.11 · 150 matches

Machida Zelvia away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.93 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yokohama F. Marinos attack 1.94 + Machida Zelvia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.44

Machida Zelvia attack 1.40 + Yokohama F. Marinos defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yokohama F. Marinos scores more

41%

level

26%

Machida Zelvia scores more

33%

Yokohama F. Marinos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yokohama F. Marinos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Yokohama F. Marinos score first in only 18% of matches
70% of Machida Zelvia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
Style contrast — Yokohama F. Marinos play Direct / counter-attacking, Machida Zelvia Defensively solid
35% of Machida Zelvia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Yokohama F. Marinos

Direct / counter-attacking

Machida Zelvia

Defensively solid

44%Possession45%

71%Pass accuracy78%

10.9Shots12.9

1.21xGBiggest gap1.63

Yokohama F. MarinosMachida Zelvia

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2

Yokohama F. Marinos

1

Draws

3

Machida Zelvia

Avg goals: 2.8BTTS: 50%

0–22–30–03–02–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

Marinos

DWDWL

Zelvia

DDWDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff