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Yeovil Town vs Sutton Utd — League #43 2026

Yeovil Town
Yeovil Town
Preview
15:00
Sutton Utd
Sutton Utd
12/26/2026League #43League #43 · Round 24Huish Park
Big match
43%
Sutton Utd
model favours
30%27%43%

Both teams score in 100% of Yeovil Town’s matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
under 2.5 goals
50%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Yeovil Town30%
×Draw27%
Sutton Utd43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yeovil Town
1.10
Sutton Utd
1.37

Sutton Utd creates 25% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 45 away

creates per match

Yeovil Town
1.00
Sutton Utd
1.24

allows per match

Yeovil Town
1.50
Sutton Utd
1.20

finishing

Yeovil Town+0.00on par
Sutton Utd+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeovil Town ↓

Sutton Utd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yeovil Town or draw
57%
Yeovil Town or Sutton Utd
73%
Draw or Sutton Utd
70%

Winning margin

Yeovil Town wins by 2+
12%
Sutton Utd wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Yeovil Town 1+ goals
67%
Yeovil Town 2+ goals
30%
Yeovil Town 3+ goals
10%
Sutton Utd 1+ goals
75%
Sutton Utd 2+ goals
40%
Sutton Utd 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Yeovil Town (draw refunded)
41%
Sutton Utd (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeovil Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Sutton Utd away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeovil Town attack 1.00 + Sutton Utd defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Sutton Utd attack 1.24 + Yeovil Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yeovil Town scores more
30%
level
27%
Sutton Utd scores more
43%

Sutton Utd at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sutton Utd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Yeovil Town score first in only 18% of matches
  • 82% of Yeovil Town’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Sutton Utd score first in only 26% of matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (82% and 61% over 2.5)
  • 38% of Sutton Utd’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
WDWL
Utd
DLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yeovil Town face Sutton Utd (League #43)

League #43 returns with Yeovil Town hosting Sutton Utd. Match starts December 26, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Yeovil Town host Sutton Utd at Huish Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.