Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Yenisey W vs Zvezda Perm W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Yenisey W
Yenisey W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Zvezda Perm W
Zvezda Perm W
8/28/2022Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 18Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Yenisey W36%
×Draw28%
Zvezda Perm W36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yenisey W
1.16
Zvezda Perm W
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 68 away

creates per match

Yenisey W
0.97
Zvezda Perm W
0.81

allows per match

Yenisey W
1.50
Zvezda Perm W
1.35

finishing

Yenisey W+0.00on par
Zvezda Perm W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey W ↓

Zvezda Perm W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yenisey W or draw
64%
Yenisey W or Zvezda Perm W
72%
Draw or Zvezda Perm W
64%

Winning margin

Yenisey W wins by 2+
15%
Zvezda Perm W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Yenisey W 1+ goals
69%
Yenisey W 2+ goals
32%
Yenisey W 3+ goals
11%
Zvezda Perm W 1+ goals
69%
Zvezda Perm W 2+ goals
32%
Zvezda Perm W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Yenisey W (draw refunded)
50%
Zvezda Perm W (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 74 matches

Zvezda Perm W away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.35 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey W attack 0.97 + Zvezda Perm W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Zvezda Perm W attack 0.81 + Yenisey W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Yenisey W scores more
36%
level
28%
Zvezda Perm W scores more
36%

Yenisey W at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Yenisey W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Yenisey W 1–2 Zvezda Perm W

Zvezda Perm W beat Yenisey W 2-1 in Supreme Division Women on August 28, 2022.

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.