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Yenisey W vs Lokomotiv Moskva W — Supreme Division Women 2020

Yenisey W
Yenisey W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lokomotiv Moskva W
Lokomotiv Moskva W
9/6/2020Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 8Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Yenisey W19%
×Draw25%
Lokomotiv Moskva W57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yenisey W
0.82
Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.63

Lokomotiv Moskva W creates 99% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

creates per match

Yenisey W
0.97
Lokomotiv Moskva W
1.76

allows per match

Yenisey W
1.50
Lokomotiv Moskva W
0.67

finishing

Yenisey W+0.00on par
Lokomotiv Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey W ↓

Lokomotiv Moskva W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yenisey W or draw
43%
Yenisey W or Lokomotiv Moskva W
75%
Draw or Lokomotiv Moskva W
81%

Winning margin

Yenisey W wins by 2+
6%
Lokomotiv Moskva W wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Yenisey W 1+ goals
56%
Yenisey W 2+ goals
20%
Yenisey W 3+ goals
5%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 1+ goals
80%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 2+ goals
48%
Lokomotiv Moskva W 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Yenisey W (draw refunded)
25%
Lokomotiv Moskva W (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 74 matches

Lokomotiv Moskva W away — creates 1.76, concedes 0.67 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey W attack 0.97 + Lokomotiv Moskva W defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.82

Lokomotiv Moskva W attack 1.76 + Yenisey W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Yenisey W scores more
19%
level
25%
Lokomotiv Moskva W scores more
57%

Lokomotiv Moskva W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lokomotiv Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yenisey W vs Lokomotiv Moskva W

Yenisey W and Lokomotiv Moskva W drew 1-1 in Supreme Division Women on September 6, 2020.

The match was played at Futbol-arena Enisey in Krasnoyarsk.