Yenisey W 0–1 CSKA Moskva W: Result & Stats

Yenisey W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CSKA Moskva W

6/24/2023

Supreme Division Women · Round 14Futbol-arena Enisey

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Yenisey W14%

×Draw22%

CSKA Moskva W64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yenisey WExpected goals in this matchCSKA Moskva W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.72

1.83

Yenisey W

0.72

CSKA Moskva W

1.83

CSKA Moskva W creates 154% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

0.97

creates per match

2.16

1.50

allows per match

0.47

creates per match

Yenisey W

0.97

CSKA Moskva W

2.16

allows per match

Yenisey W

1.50

CSKA Moskva W

0.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yenisey W+0.00on par

CSKA Moskva W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey W ↓

CSKA Moskva W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–213%

0–38%

0–44%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Yenisey W or draw

36%

Yenisey W or CSKA Moskva W

78%

Draw or CSKA Moskva W

86%

Winning margin

Yenisey W wins by 2+

4%

CSKA Moskva W wins by 2+

38%

Team goals

Yenisey W 1+ goals

51%

Yenisey W 2+ goals

16%

Yenisey W 3+ goals

4%

CSKA Moskva W 1+ goals

84%

CSKA Moskva W 2+ goals

54%

CSKA Moskva W 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Yenisey W (draw refunded)

18%

CSKA Moskva W (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 74 matches

CSKA Moskva W away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey W attack 0.97 + CSKA Moskva W defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.72

CSKA Moskva W attack 2.16 + Yenisey W defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Yenisey W scores more

14%

level

22%

CSKA Moskva W scores more

64%

CSKA Moskva W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CSKA Moskva W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff