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Yenisey vs CSKA Moskva — Supreme Division Women 2020

Yenisey
Yenisey
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
CSKA Moskva
CSKA Moskva
8/6/2020Supreme Division WomenSupreme Division Women · Round 2Central'nyj stadion Kazan'

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Yenisey14%
×Draw22%
CSKA Moskva64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yenisey
0.72
CSKA Moskva
1.83

CSKA Moskva creates 154% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 75 away

creates per match

Yenisey
0.97
CSKA Moskva
2.16

allows per match

Yenisey
1.50
CSKA Moskva
0.47

finishing

Yenisey+0.00on par
CSKA Moskva+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yenisey ↓

CSKA Moskva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–213%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Yenisey or draw
36%
Yenisey or CSKA Moskva
78%
Draw or CSKA Moskva
86%

Winning margin

Yenisey wins by 2+
4%
CSKA Moskva wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Yenisey 1+ goals
51%
Yenisey 2+ goals
16%
Yenisey 3+ goals
4%
CSKA Moskva 1+ goals
84%
CSKA Moskva 2+ goals
54%
CSKA Moskva 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Yenisey (draw refunded)
18%
CSKA Moskva (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yenisey at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.50 · 74 matches

CSKA Moskva away — creates 2.16, concedes 0.47 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yenisey attack 0.97 + CSKA Moskva defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.72

CSKA Moskva attack 2.16 + Yenisey defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Yenisey scores more
14%
level
22%
CSKA Moskva scores more
64%

CSKA Moskva at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "CSKA Moskva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Supreme Division Women: Yenisey 0–3 CSKA Moskva

CSKA Moskva beat Yenisey 3-0 in Supreme Division Women on August 6, 2020.

The match was played at Central'nyj stadion Kazan' in Kazan'.