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Yaracuy FC vs UCV — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
FT
5 – 1
UCV
UCV
5/22/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 18Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Yaracuy FC50%
×Draw25%
UCV25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.57
UCV
1.02

Yaracuy FC creates 54% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 38 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
UCV
1.03

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
UCV
1.37

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
UCV+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

UCV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
75%
Yaracuy FC or UCV
75%
Draw or UCV
50%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
26%
UCV wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
79%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
46%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
21%
UCV 1+ goals
64%
UCV 2+ goals
27%
UCV 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
67%
UCV (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

UCV away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.37 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + UCV defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.57

UCV attack 1.03 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
50%
level
25%
UCV scores more
25%

Yaracuy FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: Yaracuy FC 5–1 UCV

Yaracuy FC beat UCV 5-1 in Segunda División on May 22, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe).