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Yaracuy FC vs Titanes FC — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
PST
19:30
Titanes FC
Titanes FC
6/5/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 4Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yaracuy FC48%
×Draw25%
Titanes FC27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.55
Titanes FC
1.10

Yaracuy FC creates 41% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 86 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Titanes FC
1.21

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Titanes FC
1.33

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Titanes FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Titanes FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
73%
Yaracuy FC or Titanes FC
75%
Draw or Titanes FC
52%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
24%
Titanes FC wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
79%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
46%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
20%
Titanes FC 1+ goals
67%
Titanes FC 2+ goals
30%
Titanes FC 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
64%
Titanes FC (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Titanes FC away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Titanes FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.55

Titanes FC attack 1.21 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
48%
level
25%
Titanes FC scores more
27%

Yaracuy FC at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yaracuy FC vs Titanes FC — Match Preview

Yaracuy FC face Titanes FC on June 5, 2021 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Yaracuy FC host Titanes FC at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.