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Yaracuy FC vs Petare FC — Segunda División 2018

Yaracuy FC
Yaracuy FC
FT
4 – 0
Petare FC
Petare FC
4/19/2018Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Apertura - 12Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Yaracuy FC49%
×Draw27%
Petare FC24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yaracuy FC
1.43
Petare FC
0.92

Yaracuy FC creates 55% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 102 away

creates per match

Yaracuy FC
1.77
Petare FC
0.84

allows per match

Yaracuy FC
1.00
Petare FC
1.08

finishing

Yaracuy FC+0.00on par
Petare FC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yaracuy FC ↓

Petare FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Yaracuy FC or draw
76%
Yaracuy FC or Petare FC
73%
Draw or Petare FC
51%

Winning margin

Yaracuy FC wins by 2+
24%
Petare FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yaracuy FC 1+ goals
76%
Yaracuy FC 2+ goals
42%
Yaracuy FC 3+ goals
17%
Petare FC 1+ goals
60%
Petare FC 2+ goals
23%
Petare FC 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Yaracuy FC (draw refunded)
67%
Petare FC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yaracuy FC at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 47 matches

Petare FC away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.08 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yaracuy FC attack 1.77 + Petare FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.43

Petare FC attack 0.84 + Yaracuy FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Yaracuy FC scores more
49%
level
27%
Petare FC scores more
24%

Yaracuy FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Yaracuy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Yaracuy FC 4 – 0 Petare FC

Yaracuy FC beat Petare FC 4-0 in Segunda División on April 19, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Florentino Oropeza (San Felipe).