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Yantra Polski Trambesh vs Botev Vratsa II — Third League - Northwest 2018

Yantra Polski Trambesh
Yantra Polski Trambesh
FT
3 – 1
Botev Vratsa II
Botev Vratsa II
9/18/2021Third League - NorthwestThird League - Northwest · North-West - 7Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Yantra Polski Trambesh54%
×Draw22%
Botev Vratsa II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.92
Botev Vratsa II
1.18

Yantra Polski Trambesh creates 63% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 61 away

creates per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
2.01
Botev Vratsa II
1.16

allows per match

Yantra Polski Trambesh
1.20
Botev Vratsa II
1.82

finishing

Yantra Polski Trambesh+0.00on par
Botev Vratsa II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yantra Polski Trambesh ↓

Botev Vratsa II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Yantra Polski Trambesh or draw
77%
Yantra Polski Trambesh or Botev Vratsa II
78%
Draw or Botev Vratsa II
46%

Winning margin

Yantra Polski Trambesh wins by 2+
31%
Botev Vratsa II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Yantra Polski Trambesh 1+ goals
85%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 2+ goals
57%
Yantra Polski Trambesh 3+ goals
30%
Botev Vratsa II 1+ goals
69%
Botev Vratsa II 2+ goals
33%
Botev Vratsa II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Yantra Polski Trambesh (draw refunded)
70%
Botev Vratsa II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yantra Polski Trambesh at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.20 · 100 matches

Botev Vratsa II away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.82 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yantra Polski Trambesh attack 2.01 + Botev Vratsa II defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.92

Botev Vratsa II attack 1.16 + Yantra Polski Trambesh defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Yantra Polski Trambesh scores more
54%
level
22%
Botev Vratsa II scores more
23%

Yantra Polski Trambesh at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Yantra Polski Trambesh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Northwest: Yantra Polski Trambesh 3–1 Botev Vratsa II

Yantra Polski Trambesh beat Botev Vratsa II 3-1 in Third League - Northwest on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Polski Trambesh.