Yanbian Longding vs Meizhou Kejia

Yanbian Longding

Preview

10:00

Meizhou Kejia

7/26/2026

League One · Round 16Yanji Nationwide Fitness Centre Stadium

42%

Yanbian Longding

model favours

42%26%32%

Meizhou Kejia raise their game against the top half — 55% wins vs the upper half, only 38% vs the lower

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Yanbian Longding42%

×Draw26%

Meizhou Kejia32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yanbian LongdingExpected goals in this matchMeizhou Kejia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.21

Yanbian Longding

1.43

Meizhou Kejia

1.21

Yanbian Longding creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 53 away

1.56

creates per match

1.49

0.94

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Yanbian Longding

1.56

Meizhou Kejia

1.49

allows per match

Yanbian Longding

0.94

Meizhou Kejia

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yanbian Longding+0.00on par

Meizhou Kejia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yanbian Longding ↓

Meizhou Kejia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Yanbian Longding or draw

68%

Yanbian Longding or Meizhou Kejia

74%

Draw or Meizhou Kejia

58%

Winning margin

Yanbian Longding wins by 2+

20%

Meizhou Kejia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Yanbian Longding 1+ goals

76%

Yanbian Longding 2+ goals

42%

Yanbian Longding 3+ goals

17%

Meizhou Kejia 1+ goals

70%

Meizhou Kejia 2+ goals

34%

Meizhou Kejia 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Yanbian Longding (draw refunded)

57%

Meizhou Kejia (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yanbian Longding at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.94 · 52 matches

Meizhou Kejia away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.30 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yanbian Longding attack 1.56 + Meizhou Kejia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.43

Meizhou Kejia attack 1.49 + Yanbian Longding defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Yanbian Longding scores more

42%

level

26%

Meizhou Kejia scores more

32%

Yanbian Longding at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Yanbian Longding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Yanbian Longding sit 3, Meizhou Kejia 16 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Longding

DWWWL

Kejia

WLLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff