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Yagüe vs UD Logroñés II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Yagüe
Yagüe
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
UD Logroñés II
UD Logroñés II
1/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 11Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Yagüe29%
×Draw25%
UD Logroñés II47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yagüe
1.21
UD Logroñés II
1.62

UD Logroñés II creates 34% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 77 away

creates per match

Yagüe
1.54
UD Logroñés II
1.55

allows per match

Yagüe
1.69
UD Logroñés II
0.88

finishing

Yagüe+0.00on par
UD Logroñés II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yagüe ↓

UD Logroñés II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Yagüe or draw
53%
Yagüe or UD Logroñés II
75%
Draw or UD Logroñés II
71%

Winning margin

Yagüe wins by 2+
12%
UD Logroñés II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Yagüe 1+ goals
70%
Yagüe 2+ goals
34%
Yagüe 3+ goals
12%
UD Logroñés II 1+ goals
80%
UD Logroñés II 2+ goals
48%
UD Logroñés II 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Yagüe (draw refunded)
38%
UD Logroñés II (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yagüe at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 91 matches

UD Logroñés II away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.88 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yagüe attack 1.54 + UD Logroñés II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.21

UD Logroñés II attack 1.55 + Yagüe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Yagüe scores more
29%
level
25%
UD Logroñés II scores more
47%

UD Logroñés II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "UD Logroñés II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yagüe vs UD Logroñés II

Yagüe beat UD Logroñés II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.