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Yagüe vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Yagüe
Yagüe
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
River Ebro
River Ebro
1/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 12Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Yagüe46%
×Draw23%
River Ebro31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yagüe
1.73
River Ebro
1.39

Yagüe creates 24% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 93 away

creates per match

Yagüe
1.54
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Yagüe
1.69
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Yagüe+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yagüe ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Yagüe or draw
69%
Yagüe or River Ebro
77%
Draw or River Ebro
54%

Winning margin

Yagüe wins by 2+
24%
River Ebro wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Yagüe 1+ goals
82%
Yagüe 2+ goals
52%
Yagüe 3+ goals
25%
River Ebro 1+ goals
75%
River Ebro 2+ goals
40%
River Ebro 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Yagüe (draw refunded)
59%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yagüe at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 91 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yagüe attack 1.54 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Yagüe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Yagüe scores more
46%
level
23%
River Ebro scores more
31%

Yagüe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Yagüe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yagüe vs River Ebro

Yagüe beat River Ebro 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on January 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.