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Yagüe vs Peña Balsamaiso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Yagüe
Yagüe
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Peña Balsamaiso
Peña Balsamaiso
12/4/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 12Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Yagüe47%
×Draw24%
Peña Balsamaiso30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yagüe
1.73
Peña Balsamaiso
1.33

Yagüe creates 30% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 66 away

creates per match

Yagüe
1.54
Peña Balsamaiso
0.97

allows per match

Yagüe
1.69
Peña Balsamaiso
1.91

finishing

Yagüe+0.00on par
Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yagüe ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Yagüe or draw
70%
Yagüe or Peña Balsamaiso
76%
Draw or Peña Balsamaiso
53%

Winning margin

Yagüe wins by 2+
25%
Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Yagüe 1+ goals
82%
Yagüe 2+ goals
52%
Yagüe 3+ goals
25%
Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals
74%
Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals
38%
Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Yagüe (draw refunded)
61%
Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yagüe at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 91 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yagüe attack 1.54 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.73

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Yagüe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Yagüe scores more
47%
level
24%
Peña Balsamaiso scores more
30%

Yagüe at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Yagüe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Yagüe 0–3 Peña Balsamaiso

Peña Balsamaiso beat Yagüe 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.