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Yagüe vs Agoncillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Yagüe
Yagüe
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Agoncillo
Agoncillo
10/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 7Estadio El Salvador

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Yagüe39%
×Draw25%
Agoncillo37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yagüe
1.48
Agoncillo
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 91 home / 79 away

creates per match

Yagüe
1.54
Agoncillo
1.18

allows per match

Yagüe
1.69
Agoncillo
1.43

finishing

Yagüe+0.00on par
Agoncillo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yagüe ↓

Agoncillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Yagüe or draw
63%
Yagüe or Agoncillo
75%
Draw or Agoncillo
61%

Winning margin

Yagüe wins by 2+
18%
Agoncillo wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Yagüe 1+ goals
77%
Yagüe 2+ goals
43%
Yagüe 3+ goals
19%
Agoncillo 1+ goals
76%
Agoncillo 2+ goals
42%
Agoncillo 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Yagüe (draw refunded)
51%
Agoncillo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yagüe at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 91 matches

Agoncillo away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.43 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yagüe attack 1.54 + Agoncillo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.48

Agoncillo attack 1.18 + Yagüe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Yagüe scores more
39%
level
25%
Agoncillo scores more
37%

Yagüe at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Yagüe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Yagüe vs Agoncillo

Yagüe and Agoncillo drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Salvador in Logroño.