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Yafoot vs Fovu Club — Elite One 2019

Yafoot
Yafoot
FT
1 – 3
Fovu Club
Fovu Club
7/14/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 14Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Yafoot30%
×Draw28%
Fovu Club41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.03
Fovu Club
1.25

Fovu Club creates 21% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 67 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.84
Fovu Club
1.06

allows per match

Yafoot
1.44
Fovu Club
1.22

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
Fovu Club+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

Fovu Club →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
59%
Yafoot or Fovu Club
72%
Draw or Fovu Club
70%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
11%
Fovu Club wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
64%
Yafoot 2+ goals
28%
Yafoot 3+ goals
9%
Fovu Club 1+ goals
71%
Fovu Club 2+ goals
36%
Fovu Club 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
42%
Fovu Club (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Fovu Club away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.22 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.84 + Fovu Club defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.03

Fovu Club attack 1.06 + Yafoot defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yafoot scores more
30%
level
28%
Fovu Club scores more
41%

Fovu Club at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fovu Club will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Yafoot 1–3 Fovu Club

Fovu Club beat Yafoot 3-1 in Elite One on July 14, 2021.

The match was played at Centre sportif académique de Mbankomo in Mbankomo.