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Yafoot vs FC Rangers — Elite Two 2020

Yafoot
Yafoot
PST
00:00
FC Rangers
FC Rangers
10/11/2023Elite TwoElite Two · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Yafoot43%
×Draw27%
FC Rangers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yafoot
1.36
FC Rangers
1.10

Yafoot creates 24% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 23 away

creates per match

Yafoot
0.82
FC Rangers
0.78

allows per match

Yafoot
1.43
FC Rangers
1.91

finishing

Yafoot+0.00on par
FC Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yafoot ↓

FC Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Yafoot or draw
70%
Yafoot or FC Rangers
73%
Draw or FC Rangers
57%

Winning margin

Yafoot wins by 2+
20%
FC Rangers wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Yafoot 1+ goals
74%
Yafoot 2+ goals
39%
Yafoot 3+ goals
16%
FC Rangers 1+ goals
67%
FC Rangers 2+ goals
30%
FC Rangers 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Yafoot (draw refunded)
59%
FC Rangers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yafoot at home — creates 0.82, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

FC Rangers away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.91 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yafoot attack 0.82 + FC Rangers defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.36

FC Rangers attack 0.78 + Yafoot defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yafoot scores more
43%
level
27%
FC Rangers scores more
30%

Yafoot at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yafoot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Yafoot host FC Rangers

October 11, 2023: Yafoot take on FC Rangers in Elite Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.