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Yadah vs Kariba — Premier Soccer League 2026

Yadah
Yadah
FT
0 – 1
Kariba
Kariba
11/27/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 2Baobab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Yadah43%
×Draw32%
Kariba25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Yadah
1.09
Kariba
0.76

Yadah creates 43% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 96 away

creates per match

Yadah
0.98
Kariba
0.61

allows per match

Yadah
0.91
Kariba
1.20

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par
Kariba+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Kariba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Yadah or draw
75%
Yadah or Kariba
68%
Draw or Kariba
57%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+
18%
Kariba wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals
66%
Yadah 2+ goals
30%
Yadah 3+ goals
10%
Kariba 1+ goals
53%
Kariba 2+ goals
18%
Kariba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)
63%
Kariba (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Kariba away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.20 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Kariba defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.09

Kariba attack 0.61 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Yadah scores more
43%
level
32%
Kariba scores more
25%

Yadah at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Yadah 0–1 Kariba

Kariba beat Yadah 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 27, 2021.

The match was played at Baobab Stadium in Ngezi.