Yadah 1–1 Herentals: Result & Stats

Yadah

FT

1 – 1

Herentals

8/24/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 20Rufaro Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Yadah38%

×Draw33%

Herentals29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YadahExpected goals in this matchHerentals

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.82

Yadah

0.98

Herentals

0.82

Yadah creates 20% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 95 away

0.98

creates per match

0.74

0.91

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Yadah

0.98

Herentals

0.74

allows per match

Yadah

0.91

Herentals

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par

Herentals+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Herentals →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Yadah or draw

71%

Yadah or Herentals

67%

Draw or Herentals

62%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+

14%

Herentals wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals

62%

Yadah 2+ goals

26%

Yadah 3+ goals

8%

Herentals 1+ goals

56%

Herentals 2+ goals

20%

Herentals 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)

56%

Herentals (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Herentals away — creates 0.74, concedes 0.98 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Herentals defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.98

Herentals attack 0.74 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Yadah scores more

38%

level

33%

Herentals scores more

29%

Yadah at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff