Yadah 1–0 Green Fuel: Result & Stats

Yadah

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Green Fuel

3/20/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 1National Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Yadah44%

×Draw32%

Green Fuel24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

YadahExpected goals in this matchGreen Fuel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.73

Yadah

1.11

Green Fuel

0.73

Yadah creates 52% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 51 away

0.98

creates per match

0.55

0.91

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Yadah

0.98

Green Fuel

0.55

allows per match

Yadah

0.91

Green Fuel

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yadah+0.00on par

Green Fuel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yadah ↓

Green Fuel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Yadah or draw

76%

Yadah or Green Fuel

68%

Draw or Green Fuel

56%

Winning margin

Yadah wins by 2+

19%

Green Fuel wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Yadah 1+ goals

67%

Yadah 2+ goals

30%

Yadah 3+ goals

10%

Green Fuel 1+ goals

52%

Green Fuel 2+ goals

17%

Green Fuel 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Yadah (draw refunded)

65%

Green Fuel (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yadah at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.91 · 85 matches

Green Fuel away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yadah attack 0.98 + Green Fuel defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.11

Green Fuel attack 0.55 + Yadah defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Yadah scores more

44%

level

32%

Green Fuel scores more

24%

Yadah at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Yadah will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff