XV de Piracicaba U20 vs Velo Clube U20

XV de Piracicaba U20

Preview

18:00

Velo Clube U20

8/7/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 10

38%

XV de Piracicaba U20

model favours

38%27%35%

XV de Piracicaba U20 score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

53%

under 2.5 goals

52%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

XV de Piracicaba U2038%

×Draw27%

Velo Clube U2035%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Piracicaba U20Expected goals in this matchVelo Clube U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.25

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.32

Velo Clube U20

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

1.25

creates per match

0.95

1.55

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.25

Velo Clube U20

0.95

allows per match

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.55

Velo Clube U20

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par

Velo Clube U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Piracicaba U20 ↓

Velo Clube U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

XV de Piracicaba U20 or draw

65%

XV de Piracicaba U20 or Velo Clube U20

73%

Draw or Velo Clube U20

62%

Winning margin

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+

17%

Velo Clube U20 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals

73%

XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals

38%

XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals

15%

Velo Clube U20 1+ goals

71%

Velo Clube U20 2+ goals

36%

Velo Clube U20 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)

52%

Velo Clube U20 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Piracicaba U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

Velo Clube U20 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + Velo Clube U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Velo Clube U20 attack 0.95 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more

38%

level

27%

Velo Clube U20 scores more

35%

XV de Piracicaba U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "XV de Piracicaba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

XV de Piracicaba U20 sit 7, Velo Clube U20 38 in the table
Both teams score in only 33% of XV de Piracicaba U20’s matches
XV de Piracicaba U20 and Velo Clube U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

WWDDL

U20

LDDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff