XV de Piracicaba U20 vs São Caetano U20

XV de Piracicaba U20

Preview

18:00

São Caetano U20

8/11/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 11

37%

XV de Piracicaba U20

model favours

37%26%36%

XV de Piracicaba U20 score first in only 29% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

51%

under 2.5 goals

53%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

XV de Piracicaba U2037%

×Draw26%

São Caetano U2036%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XV de Piracicaba U20Expected goals in this matchSão Caetano U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.30

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.32

São Caetano U20

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

1.25

creates per match

1.05

1.55

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.25

São Caetano U20

1.05

allows per match

XV de Piracicaba U20

1.55

São Caetano U20

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

XV de Piracicaba U20+0.00on par

São Caetano U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Piracicaba U20 ↓

São Caetano U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

XV de Piracicaba U20 or draw

64%

XV de Piracicaba U20 or São Caetano U20

74%

Draw or São Caetano U20

63%

Winning margin

XV de Piracicaba U20 wins by 2+

17%

São Caetano U20 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

XV de Piracicaba U20 1+ goals

73%

XV de Piracicaba U20 2+ goals

38%

XV de Piracicaba U20 3+ goals

15%

São Caetano U20 1+ goals

73%

São Caetano U20 2+ goals

37%

São Caetano U20 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

XV de Piracicaba U20 (draw refunded)

51%

São Caetano U20 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Piracicaba U20 at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.55 · 20 matches

São Caetano U20 away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Piracicaba U20 attack 1.25 + São Caetano U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

São Caetano U20 attack 1.05 + XV de Piracicaba U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

XV de Piracicaba U20 scores more

37%

level

26%

São Caetano U20 scores more

36%

XV de Piracicaba U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "XV de Piracicaba U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

São Caetano U20 score first in only 30% of matches
Both teams score in only 33% of XV de Piracicaba U20’s matches
XV de Piracicaba U20 sit 7, São Caetano U20 26 in the table
XV de Piracicaba U20 and São Caetano U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

U20

WWDDL

U20

LWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff