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XV de Jaú U20 vs Porto Football U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

XV de Jaú U20
XV de Jaú U20
Preview
18:00
Porto Football U20
Porto Football U20
8/21/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 13
52%
XV de Jaú U20
model favours
52%24%24%

XV de Jaú U20 score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
53%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

XV de Jaú U2052%
×Draw24%
Porto Football U2024%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

XV de Jaú U20
1.71
Porto Football U20
1.09

XV de Jaú U20 creates 57% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.74
Porto Football U20
0.89

allows per match

XV de Jaú U20
1.30
Porto Football U20
1.67

finishing

XV de Jaú U20+0.00on par
Porto Football U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 53Under: 4753%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

XV de Jaú U20 ↓

Porto Football U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

XV de Jaú U20 or draw
76%
XV de Jaú U20 or Porto Football U20
76%
Draw or Porto Football U20
48%

Winning margin

XV de Jaú U20 wins by 2+
28%
Porto Football U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

XV de Jaú U20 1+ goals
82%
XV de Jaú U20 2+ goals
51%
XV de Jaú U20 3+ goals
24%
Porto Football U20 1+ goals
66%
Porto Football U20 2+ goals
30%
Porto Football U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

XV de Jaú U20 (draw refunded)
68%
Porto Football U20 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

XV de Jaú U20 at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Porto Football U20 away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

XV de Jaú U20 attack 1.74 + Porto Football U20 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Porto Football U20 attack 0.89 + XV de Jaú U20 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

XV de Jaú U20 scores more
52%
level
24%
Porto Football U20 scores more
24%

XV de Jaú U20 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "XV de Jaú U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 71% of XV de Jaú U20’s matches
  • 67% of XV de Jaú U20’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 37% of XV de Jaú U20’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • XV de Jaú U20 sit 29, Porto Football U20 42 in the table
  • XV de Jaú U20 and Porto Football U20 have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
U20
DLWLD
U20
LLLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: XV de Jaú U20 host Porto Football U20

August 21, 2026: XV de Jaú U20 take on Porto Football U20 in Paulista - U20. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.