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Xorazm vs Qizilqum — Super League 2026

Xorazm
Xorazm
Preview
15:00
Qizilqum
Qizilqum
9/20/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 22Xorazm Stadium
42%
Xorazm
model favours
42%28%30%
1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Xorazm42%
×Draw28%
Qizilqum30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Xorazm
1.27
Qizilqum
1.02

Xorazm creates 25% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 97 away

creates per match

Xorazm
1.00
Qizilqum
0.71

allows per match

Xorazm
1.33
Qizilqum
1.55

finishing

Xorazm+0.00on par
Qizilqum+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Xorazm ↓

Qizilqum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Xorazm or draw
70%
Xorazm or Qizilqum
72%
Draw or Qizilqum
58%

Winning margin

Xorazm wins by 2+
19%
Qizilqum wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Xorazm 1+ goals
72%
Xorazm 2+ goals
36%
Xorazm 3+ goals
14%
Qizilqum 1+ goals
64%
Qizilqum 2+ goals
27%
Qizilqum 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Xorazm (draw refunded)
59%
Qizilqum (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Xorazm at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

Qizilqum away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.55 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Xorazm attack 1.00 + Qizilqum defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Qizilqum attack 0.71 + Xorazm defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Xorazm scores more
42%
level
28%
Qizilqum scores more
30%

Xorazm at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Xorazm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Xorazm
LLLDL
Qizilqum
DLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Xorazm host Qizilqum

September 20, 2026: Xorazm take on Qizilqum in Super League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Xorazm host Qizilqum at Xorazm Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.